Pages

Friday, November 9, 2012

College Basketball Preview

The tip-off to the 2012-2013 college basketball season is tonight as many schools are begin their quest for an NCAA tournament berth. Unfortunately the school that I go to, UConn, will not even have that opportunity this year, as they have a one-year postseason ban. Anyways, college basketball season is one of the greatest times of the year. Dicky V, the Cameron Crazies, and a wealth of incoming freshmen always liven each winter, and here is my outlook on this season.

ACC:
The ACC is known for its good basketball, and next season, they will only add to that reputation with the addition of top tier basketball programs Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Notre Dame. However, for now, the two teams that instantly pop into anyone's head when ACC basketball is mentioned are Duke and North Carolina.

Duke is led by the mighty Coach K, the all-time winningest coach at the Division I college level, and this season the Blue Devils have a luxury that has become uncommon of late, maturity. Duke has three seniors, Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly, and Mason Plumlee, and they are going to have a lot asked of them this season. Youngsters Quinn Cook, who played behind Austin Rivers last season, and top 15 freshman Rasheed Sulaimon will also step into big roles on what looks to be another solid Duke team.


C.J. Leslie
North Carolina was decimated by the draft last year, when Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller, Kendall Marshall, and John Henson all decided to turn pro. This year they have sophomore James Michael McAdoo, a highly touted recruit a year ago, Dexter Strickland returning from a torn ACL, and Reggie Bullock, their top remaining scorer from last season. Head coach Roy Williams, will have this bunch ready come tournament time.

That being said, there is a new sheriff in town this season, and that is N.C. State. The Wolfpack lost to the eventual champion University of Kentucky by only three points last season, and return four starters from that Sweet 16 team. This includes leading scorer C.J. Leslie, who should be the ACC player of the year this season. Head coach Mark Gottfried also landed a top 10 recruiting class for the first time in a long time, only reinforcing his talented squad. Watch out for the Wolfpack.

Big East:
Is this the last year we get to see of the powerhouse that is Big East college basketball? The conference that churns out double digit tournament teams on the regular, will take another big hit as the three schools from above jump over to the ACC, but for this year, everything is still normal.

After making a Final Four run last season, Louisville should run away with the conference this year. Talented point guard Peyton Siva will run head coach Rick Pitino's offense, and his senior leadership will be key on this budding young group. Slashers Russ Smith and Wayne Blackshear will be counted on to score a lot of points this season, but with Siva distributing the ball, that won't be a problem. Their biggest strength however, are their interior guys. Gorgui Dieng, is the next premier Big East shot blocker (3.2 BPG last year) and Chane Behanan, a guy who I believe will be up for Big East Player of the Year come March. The conference will still get a bunch of teams in the tournament, but there is a clear divide between Louisville and the rest of the conference.

The only team that can compete with Louisville in the Big East this season is Syracuse. They return top guys such as Brandon Triche, C.J. Fair, and three-point specialist James Southerland, but the guy to watch this season is Michael Carter-Williams. Carter-Williams came off the bench last year and showed promise, now with the graduation of Scoop Jardine, and the drafting of Dion Waiters, Kris Joseph, and Fab Melo, Carter-Williams is the guy.

A sleeper team to watch is Cincinnati. A guard heavy team that, when hot, can knock off any good team. Sean Kilpatrick, Cashmere Wright and JaQuon Parker, all return and will create match-up problems for bigger, slower teams.

Big Ten:
Deshaun Thomas
The Big Ten is slowly turning into the premier basketball conference and this season it is stacked with contenders. Everybody is jumping on the Indiana bandwagon and rightfully so. The team returns its top five scorers, a talented Maurice Creek from injury, and added three top notch freshmen. Cody Zeller is the guy grabbing most of the country's attention, but guys like Christian "Watford for the win....YES!", Victor Oladipo, Will Sheehey, and Jordan Hulls are all back, as coach Tom Crean has the Hoosiers back on the map.

Another contender in the Big Ten this season will be Ohio St. Another team that made it to the Final Four last year, the Buckeyes have a guy who will challenge Zeller for Big Ten and National Player of the Year and that is Deshaun Thomas. He flourished in the tournament last year, and with Jared Sullinger getting drafted, Thomas is now the featured scorer on the team. Setting up Thomas, is arguably the best floor general in the league, point guard Aaron Craft. Craft manages a basketball game so well, not always by earning points or assists, but just by controlling the game.

Michigan St. will also hang around the top because head coach Tom Izzo won't allow anything less. Point guard Keith Appling was the team's second-leading scorer a year ago, and incoming freshman Gary Harris, will complete a solid backcourt for Izzo. Derrick Nix (6'9" 270 lbs) will need to grab more than four rebounds a game this year now that "Mr. Do Everything" Draymond Green is gone, and if he can Michigan St. can be a scary team.

One team that a bunch of people have talked about in the preseason who I just don't see being anything special is Michigan. Trey Burke is a talented player, but aside from him, they have A LOT of freshmen pieces that are not going to be able to keep up with the teams mentioned above.

Big-12: 
Kansas and Baylor each went deep into the tournament last year, but they also each lost key pieces. Kansas made it all the way to the NCAA Championship game last year, mainly on the backs of Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor. The two were the top scorers on last year's team, and Robinson led the team in rebounds, while Taylor led the team in assists. Replacing them this season is shot-blocking machine Jeff Withey (3.6 BPG) and Elijah Johnson, who will have the ball in his hands a lot this season and will be expected to create.

Baylor on the other hand, lost their three of their top four scorers from last year in Perry Jones III, Quincy Miller, and Quincy Acy. All three were forwards and head coach Scott Drew has brought in a similar guy in freshman Isaiah Austin. Austin was the third ranked recruit of his class and he along with last year's leading scorer and assist man Pierre Jackson will need to be huge in order for Baylor to challenge Kansas and make another run. Three-point threat Brady Heslip will take some of the pressure off of them by spacing the floor as well.

Two teams that may be able to challenge those two are Oklahoma St. and Texas. They are very young, but come February and March, don't be surprised if they pull a few upsets.

Pac-12: 
Like the Big-12, the Pac-12 should also be a two team race down to the end, but neither of them are really that talented. In fact, the Pac-12 basketball conference has kind of turned into a joke for the past couple of years after the run of Final Fours by UCLA a few years ago. Last season, they only had two teams make to tournament, and they had to have one by rule. Their only at-large bid was California, and Colorado the sixth best team in the poor conference was the one to win the tournament. This season, UCLA and Arizona are the two teams that are making some noise early on.

UCLA landed the number two and five recruits in the country in Shabazz Muhammad and Kyle Anderson. However, it was announced today that Muhammad has been suspended indefinitely by the NCAA for receiving illegal benefits. UCLA still has a talented freshmen class, and they will be depended on a lot, which may reflect in their record early on, but upperclassmen Josh Smith and the Wear brothers will help ease the load.

Arizona also earned a top tier recruiting class, number three overall, and they already have scorers like Nick Johnson and a solid player in Solomon Hill. Head coach Sean Miller has enough to battle UCLA, and even though the rest of the conference is pretty weak, these two teams both have the potential to be very dangerous.

SEC:
John Calipari
The SEC, like the Big Ten, is also starting to establish itself as a host to some of the better college basketball teams. This conference used to be like the now Pac-12, in the sense that it was the laughing stock of basketball due to their low scoring and boring games. Now, Kentucky head coach and recruiting guru John Calipari, assembles some of the best "one and done" teams ever, Billy Donovan continues to be one of the best coaches down in Florida, and Missouri's high powered offense joins the league as well.

The front runner of the three is definitely Kentucky. The inexperience factor simply does not imply to Calipari coached teams, as the coach somehow gets his guys to play hard and well from the start of every season, despite the number of contributing freshmen on his roster. After winning the National Championship last season with three freshmen and two sophomores in their starting lineup. Four of them got drafted in the first round, and the fifth along with the sixth man were drafted in the second round! How does Kentucky replace that? Don't worry they landed top recruit Nerlens Noel, and two other big name recruits Alex Poythress and Archie Goodwin. All three are expected to start with the return of Kyle Wiltjer, the seventh man on last year's team and lone returning rotation player. Throw in Ryan Harrow, a transfer from N.C. State who averaged a shade under 10 PPG his freshman year there, and you are looking at another championship contender.

Florida is completely different from Kentucky because they will be relying heavily on their upperclassmen. Kenny Boynton is a lethal scorer, and this is his team going into his senior season. With the departure of lottery pick Bradley Beal, Boynton will need to score a lot for them, but underneath he will have Patric Young, a monster on the glass. If Young can be the garbageman down low and Boynton continues his success, watch out for Donovan's Gators.

Despite getting upset by a 15 seed in last year's tournament, Missouri was very successful in the regular season, earning a 2 seed. Transfers will dictate how this season will go for the Tigers, as former UConn forward Alex Oriakhi, and former Pepperdine scorer Keion Bell, are looking to round out a stout starting lineup. Phil Pressey and Michael Dixon Jr. return and will provide much of the scoring, but key guys Kim English, Marcus Denmon, Matt Pressey and Ricardo Ratliffe all left after their big seasons last year.

Best of the Rest:
Outside of the "Major Conferences," there are many mid-majors that have been advancing further and further in the tournament. Teams to look out for like that this year are, UNLV, Memphis, and Creighton.

UNLV already has a very talented star in Mike Moser and head coach Dave Rice bolstered his roster with the number seven recruiting class in the nation. Rice secured top power forward Anthony Bennett to help out Moser and the tandem could pose threats for teams with less athletic bigs.

Memphis' year is not this one, but next year, where coach John Pastner has put together a Calipari-like recruiting class. However, don't sleep on them this season. An underachieving young bunch last year, is now a year older.

Creighton is only mentioned here for one reason only, and that is Doug McDermott. 23 points and 8 rebounds a game, while being 6'8" and shooting 50% from three. McDermott is a special talent and can fill up a stat sheet in a hurry.

My Top Ten:
1. Louisville - I really like what Pitino has over at Louisville, and playing in the Big East will help.
2. Indiana - I am not completely sold on the Hoosiers...yet. Zeller needs to prove he can be the guy.
3. Kentucky - Any team coached be Calipari will be playing late in March.
4. Ohio St. - Deshaun Thomas will be the talk of the country in a few weeks.
5. N.C. State - It will be tough to stay this high during the year with UNC and Duke.
6. Kansas - The runner-ups are ready for another big year.
7. Syracuse - Michael Carter-Williams, Brandon Triche, and C.J. Fair will lead this team far.
8. Duke - Coach K and the Cameron Crazies give the Blue Devils a huge advantage at home.
9. Michigan St. - The departure of Draymond Green will hurt, but the scoring will balance out this year.
10. Florida - Kenny Boynton will have to be big for the Gators.

Cody Zeller
Wooden Award Watch (MVP):
Cody Zeller - Indiana University
Zeller is the guy everyone will be looking at this year, and he will need to succeed for the Hoosiers to as well. Indiana does have talent, but they all are that much better when Zeller is scoring and rebounding.

Deshaun Thomas - Ohio State University
Thomas was the second option all of last season, and now he will, like Zeller, also be looked at to lead his team. the only difference is that Thomas has a guy in Aaron Craft that will create many easy scoring opportunities for Thomas.

Doug McDermott - Creighton University
Don't sleep on Ol' Doug over at Creighton. Yes they are in a weak Missouri Valley Conference, but McDermott puts up huge numbers. I wouldn't call McDermott a sleeper because he is that talented, but people will see what he can do very quickly.

Nerlens Noel - University of Kentucky
Noel will have to live up to the season that Anthony Davis had last year for Calipari and although it is unfair, everything he does will be compared to Davis. That being said, Noel is talented, and he is an exciting player as well, who ironically, is similar to Davis.

Trey Burke - University of Michigan
Burke started off very well last year during his freshman season, but cooled and so did Michigan down the stretch. I did say earlier that I don't see why Michigan is being so highly praised, but if Burke has a Kemba Walker like season, Michigan will go places.

Final Four Predictions:
LOUISVILLE, INDIANA, N.C. STATE, KENTUCKY

National Championship Predictions:
LOUISVILLE over INDIANA

Wooden Award Winner:
DESHAUN THOMAS

1 comment:

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...